Possible Development of the Smartphone and Mobile Processor Markets After Huawei Ban (pre-order)

After the U.S. Foreign Direct Product Rule came into effect, Huawei can no longer obtain chips externally, putting its smartphone business in danger. As a result, Huawei announced the decision to sell its smartphone brand Honor on November 17, 2020. This report looks at Honor’s future development and Huawei’s possible plans for its semiconductor arm Hisilicon and forecasts the outlook for the smartphone and mobile processor markets in 2021 and beyond.

• Background of U.S. Ban on Huawei
• Development of the smartphone market amid the ongoing Huawei ban, touching on key factors driving market shares and strategies adopted by leading players like New Honor Company and Apple
• Use Scenario Analysis to predict what New Honor Company and Apple would do and the possible outcomes to the global smartphone industry and its supply chain 
• Development of the mobile processor market amid the ongoing Huawei ban, touching on key factors driving market shares
• Use Scenario Analysis to predict what Huawei would do if the ban relaxed or remains and the possible outcomes if Huawei spins off Hisilicon due to continued ban 

• AMD
• Apple
• ASE
• AWSC
• Broadcom
• BYD Company
• Career Technology
• Chipbond Technology
• Compeq
• FIH
• Flexium Interconnect
• Fujitsu
• Genius Electronic
• GIS
• Google
• Hisilicon
• Huawei
• Intel
• Inventec
• Kinsus Interconnect Technology
• KYEC
• Largan
• MediaTek
• New Honor Company
• Newmax
• Oppo
• Pegatron
• Qualcomm
• Samsung
• Sharp
• SMIC
• Spreadtrum Communications
• TSMC
• TXC
• Vivo
• WIN Semiconductors
• Wistron
• Xiaomi
• Zhen Ding Technology
• ZTE

Table of Contents

1. Background 
2. Smartphone Market Development 

2.1 Key Factors Driving Market Share Changes: Pricing Strategies of New Honor Company and Apple 

2.1.1 New Honor Company Targets High-end Market Segment with Complete Product Lines 

2.1.2 Apple Puts More Effort to Develop Low-priced Smartphones 

2.2 If New Honor Company Focuses on Mid-range and Value-line Models to Compete with Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo 

2.2.1 Impact on Global Smartphone Industry: Prices of Non-Samsung Android Phones Will Plunge 

2.2.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Orders for Components Will Increase but Profits May Decline 

2.3 If Honor Company Focuses on High-end Models and Apple Increases Value-line Models 

2.3.1 Impact on the Worldwide Smartphone Industry: Apple Will Strike Back and Secure More Share in China 

2.3.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Some Suppliers Will Benefit from Order Shifts but Assembly Vendors May be Affected by Apple’s Chinese Supply Chain 

2.4 If New Honor Company and Apple Both Focus on High-end Models 

2.4.1 Impact on the Global Smartphone Industry: Competition in the Industry Will Remain Intact 

2.4.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Suppliers Will Gain Orders from New Honor Company Instead and May Cut into the U.S. Supply Chain 

3.Mobile Processor Market Development 

3.1 Key Factors Driving Market Share Changes: Relaxation of Huawei Ban and Spin-off of Hisilicon if Huawei Ban Remains 

3.1.1 Ban Relaxed: Huawei Will Use Third-party Chips in the Short Term 

3.1.2 Ban Remains: Huawei Will Very Likely to Spin off Hisilicon and Affect the Mobile Processor Market Shares 

3.2 If Huawei is Still Unable to Acquire Enough Volume of Chips in the Short Term Despite Ban Relaxation 

3.2.2 Mobile Processor Manufacturers Will be in a Favorable Position in the Short Term With or Without Ban Relaxation 

3.3 If Huawei Spins off its Business to Survive Due to Continued Ban 

3.3.1 Solution #1: Hisilicon Becomes an Independent Chip Foundry Supported by the Chinese Government 

3.3.2 Solution #2: Hisilicon Becomes a Chinese IT Brand’s Subsidiary 

3.3.3 Challenges to Future Development of Hisilicon 

4. MIC Perspective 

Appendix 

List of Companies 

Table of Contents

1. Background 
2. Smartphone Market Development 

2.1 Key Factors Driving Market Share Changes: Pricing Strategies of New Honor Company and Apple 

2.1.1 New Honor Company Targets High-end Market Segment with Complete Product Lines 

2.1.2 Apple Puts More Effort to Develop Low-priced Smartphones 

2.2 If New Honor Company Focuses on Mid-range and Value-line Models to Compete with Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo 

2.2.1 Impact on Global Smartphone Industry: Prices of Non-Samsung Android Phones Will Plunge 

2.2.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Orders for Components Will Increase but Profits May Decline 

2.3 If Honor Company Focuses on High-end Models and Apple Increases Value-line Models 

2.3.1 Impact on the Worldwide Smartphone Industry: Apple Will Strike Back and Secure More Share in China 

2.3.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Some Suppliers Will Benefit from Order Shifts but Assembly Vendors May be Affected by Apple’s Chinese Supply Chain 

2.4 If New Honor Company and Apple Both Focus on High-end Models 

2.4.1 Impact on the Global Smartphone Industry: Competition in the Industry Will Remain Intact 

2.4.2 Impact on Smartphone Supply Chain: Suppliers Will Gain Orders from New Honor Company Instead and May Cut into the U.S. Supply Chain 

3.Mobile Processor Market Development 

3.1 Key Factors Driving Market Share Changes: Relaxation of Huawei Ban and Spin-off of Hisilicon if Huawei Ban Remains 

3.1.1 Ban Relaxed: Huawei Will Use Third-party Chips in the Short Term 

3.1.2 Ban Remains: Huawei Will Very Likely to Spin off Hisilicon and Affect the Mobile Processor Market Shares 

3.2 If Huawei is Still Unable to Acquire Enough Volume of Chips in the Short Term Despite Ban Relaxation 

3.2.2 Mobile Processor Manufacturers Will be in a Favorable Position in the Short Term With or Without Ban Relaxation 

3.3 If Huawei Spins off its Business to Survive Due to Continued Ban 

3.3.1 Solution #1: Hisilicon Becomes an Independent Chip Foundry Supported by the Chinese Government 

3.3.2 Solution #2: Hisilicon Becomes a Chinese IT Brand’s Subsidiary 

3.3.3 Challenges to Future Development of Hisilicon 

4. MIC Perspective 

Appendix 

List of Companies